You need to up your TA.

You need to up your technical analysis.

Psychology is cute, but it can only lock in if your technical analysis is solid first.

I used to make all the mistakes. Added to losers. Sized up. Sizing up was the big one. Sometimes I'd add right after a loser just because I was pissed off at the previous trade.

Then one day it clicked. I was smarter than 99% of the people I was watching, but only because of my ability to read PA. That was my edge. I was watching complete dummies post winning trades and high P/Ls while I was the one losing money — because I still didn't understand what my edge actually was.

Seems like an emotional or psychological problem. It wasn't.

On the outside, it looked like I didn't know what I was doing. Like I was making every rookie mistake. I wasn't a rookie. I was highly knowledgeable and experienced. I was making those mistakes because I wasn't disciplined and controlled, but that still wasn't the real problem.

The problem was I hadn't fully understood that I already had an edge.

And an edge isn't some mystical thing. It can be as simple as being able to see a clear bull flag or strong support. There's obviously more to it than that. You need to know when the trade is invalidated, what risk to put on, where to place your stop, where to take profits or move to break-even, whether you're the liquidity for a fake-out, what a fake-out for your specific edge looks like, when that fake-out is invalidated, when to add, etc. That's a full edge. Technical analysis.

Once you raise the level of your TA, your edge gets stronger. You know when to get out quick. You know when to add late. You know when to sell the LOD. You know when to average in after resistance breaks. You know when you're caught. You know what to risk and how many contracts make sense. And honestly — you just know how to execute and accept. It doesn't have to be complicated. You can set a bracket and walk away. All of that is edge.

"An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another."

Marky D

Poker players are hoping. We don't have to.

I was watching the World Series of Poker last night. It got me thinking about those guys. In some ways they do have an edge, but it's so damn complicated and strategic that they still end up hoping most of the time. Do you know what they do now? They show their cards, stand up, walk over to their fan club, and then wait for the dealer to run it out. They're hoping.

On the side of the screen you can see the real probabilities — 33% to 2%. The players have no idea! One guy has a pair, the other has nothing, and somehow the 2% hits a straight flush. Gambling.

We're better positioned than that game in a way most people don't fully understand. Every time we see a technical setup that has a higher probability of continuing in our favor after entry, our odds are better than 50%. Every time. We can execute and go back to sleep. We don't have to hope for shit.

There's no point in adding to losers just to find out. There's no point in sizing up or taking trades we have no business taking. We already know the higher-probability signals to look for.

Eventually your edge becomes boring.

Once I realized I had an edge in knowing what was more likely to happen, I locked in. I can't afford to think in purely emotional terms anymore. Yes, I still get emotional, because being wrong when you're used to being right is painful. But I've learned that leads nowhere. I have to always know what the market is actually doing — even after a loss — as if I was never in the trade, so I can keep making clear decisions. It's the only way.

Eventually your edge becomes systematic and boring. It has to! You hit the button and accept. Because the real edge isn't this trade or that trade. It's the probabilities over the week and the month. Don't fuck up that math! Just keep doing what you're supposed to do.

You'll see.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk.